Managed to pull this from a regular case. Eh, not bad. Kinda wish it were B93 B91. Also got those cobalts from 3 elite cases so I guess I'm pretty lucky either way. No other Ghostclips from them, though.

There is nothing else in this game that pisses me off more than this:

I feel like it happens every ranked season or case event now. If they're not the exact same, they're the same merc - and one I never use.

Anyway, pulled a few more today after opening about 30 regular cases. All yours if you need that Fragger, @ Eox.@Djiesse. Sawbones profile pic' confused me. My bad lol.

"Only a few"
I have 1200 hours+ and not a single playable special card. I keep on getting Proxys, double times, Redeye PDPs and Phoenix, which I never play.

Well, think that's about it for me. Spent about 150k credits and 100 bucks for those wondering. Here's a summary of my event.

Good pulls:

Meh pulls:

And this pile of trash:

I got 5 from the elite case bundles which wasn't that great considering 4 were guaranteed. Got lucky with 2 cobalts from these I posted in here, though. Really happy with that C41 Bush.

So, yeah, overall not feeling too hot about my luck this time around. Love the cobalt that came along with it, the S41 Arty the game generously decided to give me twice, and my 2 Fletcher cards although BL21 would have been ideal. Good Fragger and Sky cards, and at least I got the best PDP Aimee card if that counts for anything. Sawbones didn't show, anything Nader would have been nice, and I started to want a Javelin pretty bad after I realized this looks just like her skin at launch but without that ugly red hair.

You win some and lose some, I guess. So that's all from me! No more credits spent or updates unless I miraculously get one from a case drop after a game. Good luck everyone else!

@Wo1ven the Phoenix one looks the best imo
Enemy variant makes all of his attire white, and his helmet too, which is sick @$!# this edgy obsidian, I wish I had a GC Phoenix instead

200+ cases and the best thing i got is ~6 bronzes. I'm displeased to say the least.
Somebody correct me if I'm wrong but odds of not getting a silver or a special edition after 200 cases are 0.028%. How did i manage that.

@Guziol said:
200+ cases and the best thing i got is ~6 bronzes. I'm displeased to say the least.
Somebody correct me if I'm wrong but odds of not getting a silver or a special edition after 200 cases are 0.028%. How did i manage that.

I will correct you on that, because probability and statistics is my jam. Math explanation in the spoiler if you want it. Results below because I'm mathing this as I'm typing.

The Probability of getting a Silver or better [represented as P(Silver+) from hereon] from a single case is the summation of the probabilities of getting a Silver, Gold, Cobalt and Special Edition. Mathematically:
P(Silver+)=P(Silver)+P(Gold)+P(Cobalt)+P(Special Edition)
Sub in given probabilities in decimal form (2% is 0.02):
P(Silver+)=0.02+0.005+0.001+0.02=0.046 or 4.6%
Which means the probability of getting less than a silver is:
P(not Silver+)=1-P(Silver+)=1-0.046=0.954 or 95.4%

For a binomial (2 options, in this case Silver+ and not Silver+) distribution, the probability of an event happening n times is P(n events)=P(event)^n. In this case, n is 200 and the event is getting less than a Silver (not Silver+, as previously written.
P(200 no Silver+)=P(not Silver+)^200= 0.954^200=0.00001507 (truncated) or 0.001507%
Which means the probability of getting at least 1 Silver+ card is:
P(at least 1 Silver+)=1-P(200 no Silver+)=1-0.00001507=0.99998403 or 99.998403%

Take 1/P(200 no Silver+) to determine a 1:number ratio, which gives a more understandable number.
1/0.00001507=66,357 (truncated)
Let me put this into context. The 2010 Population of Union City, New Jersey was 66,455. Union City, New Jersey was the 529th most populous city in the United States at that time. If all those people were to open 200 cases, one would expect only 1 of them to be as unlucky as you.
If you read everything, go get a cookie. You deserve it.

Actual probability is around 0.0015% or 1 in about 66,000.
You managed it by rolling a lot of dice very poorly. RNG is a lovely design choice.

Nice. For the sake of the argument i only counted silvers and ghostclip loadouts, both are 2% so i counted 96% to not get said outcomes. Is 0.96 to the power of 200 correct in that case? I'm not arguing with your math, only curious if my idea was correct if i assumed only Silver/ghostclip vs anything else.

@Guziol said:
Nice. For the sake of the argument i only counted silvers and ghostclip loadouts, both are 2% so i counted 96% to not get said outcomes. Is 0.96 to the power of 200 correct in that case? I'm not arguing with your math, only curious if my idea was correct if i assumed only Silver/ghostclip vs anything else.

Correct. 0.96^200 is 0.00028 or 0.028%.
This is why I included the methodology. With given tiers, I prefer assuming anything of an equal or higher tier to the goal when considering everything.

Finally a silver. That i already own in silver with preffered skin. 5 cases later a ghostclip loadout. That i already own in cobalt. It's at least a loadout i like. M4 skyhammer with unshakable and turbo ammo.

@Guziol said:
Finally a silver. That i already own in silver with preffered skin. 5 cases later a ghostclip loadout. That i already own in cobalt. It's at least a loadout i like. M4 skyhammer with unshakable and turbo ammo.

When i finally got a ghostclip card from an equipment case, it was the 143 sparks which i already had in ranked 3, silver, and cobalt. I feel ya

## Comments

1,797I opened 2 of 6 cases and got crapy lead cards. Not expecting much on event cards any more ill be happy with my obsidian opratives cards got

Hey look i finaly got a sig , and nothing to put here

526Managed to pull this from a regular case. Eh, not bad. Kinda wish it were B93 B91. Also got those cobalts from 3 elite cases so I guess I'm pretty lucky either way. No other Ghostclips from them, though.

4,740I just remembered why cases infuriate me. Best I've gotten was a Silver Sparks.

ダーティーボムは非常に良いですが、あなたは非常に悪いです

2,031I decided to waste even more credits in hope of a Sparps.

At least they got the class right.

I bang you all!

Now you're dead too.

4,740That's actually my favorite Sawbonez card @Lord_Coctus

I'm jelly

ダーティーボムは非常に良いですが、あなたは非常に悪いです

1,364Yeah...I've had at least 3 batches of ten that were 100% lead, le sigh

1,797Welcome to the L.C.A (lead cards anonymous)

Hey look i finaly got a sig , and nothing to put here

308140-ish cases in and I still did not get a special edition. Highest I've got is bronze so far.

526There is nothing else in this game that pisses me off more than this:

I feel like it happens every ranked season or case event now. If they're not the exact same, they're the same merc - and one I never use.

Anyway, pulled a few more today after opening about 30 regular cases. All yours if you need that Fragger, @ Eox. @Djiesse. Sawbones profile pic' confused me. My bad lol.

116Only a few I'd consider ever using, marked with the star.

But those are nice.

167"Only a few"

I have 1200 hours+ and not a single playable special card. I keep on getting Proxys, double times, Redeye PDPs and Phoenix, which I never play.

I hate you all.

3how much money did you spend @dlux ?

37These are the ones I've gotten so far https://steamuserimages-a.akamaihd.net/ugc/895511849389528941/6EF3E96E0843F060688524FDE800A9C24B56527A/

https://steamuserimages-a.akamaihd.net/ugc/895511849389528841/25EC9884A74B1046A528574EBB5D07F172015296/

https://steamuserimages-a.akamaihd.net/ugc/895511849389528741/B6ECE3262A3A0C761311EC307B1752D68857CF7B/

https://steamuserimages-a.akamaihd.net/ugc/895511849389528642/C03444F05CF18AE2A63718BC23D60CAE6EE510A5/

https://steamuserimages-a.akamaihd.net/ugc/895511849389528534/F8F931416B6CADF3B79DD4978FA13054C91ACBD6/

https://steamuserimages-a.akamaihd.net/ugc/895511849389528451/D33B9606E46C44742AE3E1DD9E764CBCE76A1B13/

https://steamuserimages-a.akamaihd.net/ugc/895511849389528308/36A6629EF49CA61016B1852B757D6F571A73E561/

2,995ModeratorAnother one.

And this one I forgot to post.

837Genome EditorThanks for the thought @Wintergreen but I'm all covered for this set.

Visit the Dirty Bomb Genome Project526Well, think that's about it for me. Spent about 150k credits and 100 bucks for those wondering. Here's a summary of my event.

Good pulls:

Meh pulls:

And this pile of trash:

I got 5 from the elite case bundles which wasn't that great considering 4 were guaranteed. Got lucky with 2 cobalts from these I posted in here, though. Really happy with that C41 Bush.

So, yeah, overall not feeling too hot about my luck this time around. Love the cobalt that came along with it, the S41 Arty the game generously decided to give me twice, and my 2 Fletcher cards although BL21 would have been ideal. Good Fragger and Sky cards, and at least I got the best PDP Aimee card if that counts for anything. Sawbones didn't show, anything Nader would have been nice, and I started to want a Javelin pretty bad after I realized this looks just like her skin at launch but without that ugly red hair.

You win some and lose some, I guess. So that's all from me! No more credits spent or updates unless I miraculously get one from a case drop after a game. Good luck everyone else!

@CryonicArrow: That B81 Arty is amazing. Nice one!

2,031Nice one, although i like its first gen better.

I bang you all!

Now you're dead too.

138I must have opened close to 300 cases now. Got two more. Really hoping for a Sawbonez BL71 or SM41.

431@Wo1ven the Phoenix one looks the best imo

Enemy variant makes all of his attire white, and his helmet too, which is sick

@$!# this edgy obsidian, I wish I had a GC Phoenix instead

308200+ cases and the best thing i got is ~6 bronzes. I'm displeased to say the least.

Somebody correct me if I'm wrong but odds of not getting a silver or a special edition after 200 cases are 0.028%. How did i manage that.

269I will correct you on that, because probability and statistics is my jam. Math explanation in the spoiler if you want it. Results below because I'm mathing this as I'm typing.

The Probability of getting a Silver or better [represented as P(Silver+) from hereon] from a single case is the summation of the probabilities of getting a Silver, Gold, Cobalt and Special Edition. Mathematically:

P(Silver+)=P(Silver)+P(Gold)+P(Cobalt)+P(Special Edition)

Sub in given probabilities in decimal form (2% is 0.02):

P(Silver+)=0.02+0.005+0.001+0.02=0.046 or 4.6%

Which means the probability of getting less than a silver is:

P(not Silver+)=1-P(Silver+)=1-0.046=0.954 or 95.4%

For a binomial (2 options, in this case Silver+ and not Silver+) distribution, the probability of an event happening n times is P(n events)=P(event)^n. In this case, n is 200 and the event is getting less than a Silver (not Silver+, as previously written.

P(200 no Silver+)=P(not Silver+)^200= 0.954^200=0.00001507 (truncated) or 0.001507%

Which means the probability of getting at least 1 Silver+ card is:

P(at least 1 Silver+)=1-P(200 no Silver+)=1-0.00001507=0.99998403 or 99.998403%

Take 1/P(200 no Silver+) to determine a 1:number ratio, which gives a more understandable number.

1/0.00001507=66,357 (truncated)

Let me put this into context. The 2010 Population of Union City, New Jersey was 66,455. Union City, New Jersey was the 529th most populous city in the United States at that time. If all those people were to open 200 cases, one would expect only 1 of them to be as unlucky as you.

If you read everything, go get a cookie. You deserve it.

Actual probability is around 0.0015% or 1 in about 66,000.

You managed it by rolling a lot of dice very poorly. RNG is a lovely design choice.

308Nice. For the sake of the argument i only counted silvers and ghostclip loadouts, both are 2% so i counted 96% to not get said outcomes. Is 0.96 to the power of 200 correct in that case? I'm not arguing with your math, only curious if my idea was correct if i assumed only Silver/ghostclip vs anything else.

1,364The nice pulls people get and I'm still getting lead after lead after lead...

269Correct. 0.96^200 is 0.00028 or 0.028%.

This is why I included the methodology. With given tiers, I prefer assuming anything of an equal or higher tier to the goal when considering everything.

308Finally a silver. That i already own in silver with preffered skin. 5 cases later a ghostclip loadout. That i already own in cobalt. It's at least a loadout i like. M4 skyhammer with unshakable and turbo ammo.

479When i finally got a ghostclip card from an equipment case, it was the 143 sparks which i already had in ranked 3, silver, and cobalt. I feel ya

121one and only

526I lied. (: Got another from case drops at the end of the match.

I guess the game knew how bad I felt for not buying Stoker's T52 undead skin recently.

1,3649 more leads and a iron.....

138Got another one, so huzza I guess. But I already have this in Final Assault.